The gap between a system knowing and a system telling.

Claim ledger

The Warning Was Slower Than the Water · atom WT-001 preprint — not peer reviewed

Claim ledger — The Warning Was Slower Than the Water

Atom WT-001 · ledger version 16 claims · generated 2026-09-15

Every number spoken or shown in this piece appears below with what kind of number it is and where it came from. If one of them is wrong, tell me and the correction gets published with a date.

Type means:

observed — an instrument recorded it
calculated — arithmetic on observed values
modelled — the output of a model, with its assumptions
inferred — reasoned from indirect evidence
reported — someone else asserts it and I am repeating it

Source status: preprint-unreviewed · DOI 10.31223/X5HN5H

id	claim	type	source	retrieved
`C01`	The ice-rock mass detached from the northern flank of the Langtang massif at 08:37:10 Nepal Time on 26 August 2026	reported · abstract	Acharya, S. (2026), EarthArXiv preprint, v5	2026-09-12
`C02`	The mass public alert followed the trigger by 38.8 minutes	calculated · abstract	Acharya, S. (2026), EarthArXiv preprint, v5	2026-09-12
`C03`	The wave reached the uppermost gauge within 12.8 minutes of the trigger	calculated · abstract	Acharya, S. (2026), EarthArXiv preprint, v5	2026-09-12
`C04`	Lead time at the first inhabited settlement was -26 to -16 minutes	calculated · abstract	Acharya, S. (2026), EarthArXiv preprint, v5	2026-09-12
`C05`	Lead time at the next settlement downstream was +4 to +14 minutes	calculated · abstract	Acharya, S. (2026), EarthArXiv preprint, v5	2026-09-12
`C06`	Three destroyed gauges never triggered threshold alerts, having been lost at 27, 69 and 87 percent of their own warning stage	observed	Acharya, S. (2026), EarthArXiv preprint, v5; DHM Flood Forecasting Division station records	2026-09-12
`C07`	The USGS reclassified the signal from a magnitude 4.4 earthquake to a magnitude 5.2 landslide; long-period seismic waves were generated by the collapse rather than preceding it	reported · event page, reviewed solution; FDSN web service	USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, reviewed solution for event us7000tbwb (type: landslide, mag 5.2 ms_vx)	2026-09-13
`C08`	Initial seismic estimates put the detached mass between 197 and 492 million cubic metres	modeled · catalogue entry	GFZ GEOFON catalogue solution gfz2026qrfy (Mw 5.7, depth 0, type landslide); inversion estimates circulated by GFZ Potsdam and D. Shugar	2026-09-13
`C09`	A block of bedrock and glacier ice roughly 600 metres wide fell about 1,200 vertical metres from an elevation of 5,200 to 5,400 metres	reported · press release; corroborated in graded dossier section 2	ICIMOD press release and field/remote-sensing assessment, 26 Aug 2026; glaciological commentary (Petley/Eos, Davies/AntarcticGlaciers) for the geometry range	2026-09-13
`C10`	This was not a glacial lake outburst flood. ICIMOD and Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology considered a GLOF and ruled it out, describing a four-stage chain - rock and ice avalanche, temporary natural dam across the Lhende Khola, sudden dam break, debris flow	reported · press release; sitrep mirrored at nirajbhusal.github.io/rasuwa-flood-bulletin/	ICIMOD press release, 26 Aug 2026; DHM Flood Forecasting Division technical situation report (Bhadra 10), section 2	2026-09-13
`C11`	679,295 warning text messages were dispatched, within about a minute of the alert being issued	observed · sitrep section 5; no permanent official URL exists, contemporaneous reproductions agree on every figure	DHM Flood Forecasting Division technical situation report (Bhadra 10), section 5: SMS dispatch 09:16 NPT, 679,295 messages (Nepal Telecom 435,635; Ncell remainder)	2026-09-13
`C12`	The District Administration Office and Betrawati station staff notified the Flood Forecasting Division at 09:00; the alert was confirmed at 09:15 and SMS dispatch began at 09:16	observed · sitrep section 2	DHM Flood Forecasting Division technical situation report (Bhadra 10), section 2: notification chronology	2026-09-13
`C13`	Confirmed deaths stand at 1,386 in Nepal as of 12 September and 43 in the Tibet Autonomous Region as of 6 September, with 5,130 and 519 missing respectively	reported	Nepal Ministry of Home Affairs / NDRRMA figures via wire reporting, 12 Sep 2026; Tibet AR authorities via Xinhua, 6 Sep 2026	2026-09-13
`C14`	The flood struck settlements along a 72 kilometre stretch of the Trishuli River	reported	Acharya, S. (2026), EarthArXiv preprint, v5	2026-09-12
`C15`	The early-warning system was optimised for monsoon and perennial flooding, and the upstream monitoring stations were swept away before alerts could be sent	reported · sitrep sections 2 and 4	DHM Flood Forecasting Division technical situation report (Bhadra 10), sections 2 and 4: station losses and thresholds; interpretation of the design mismatch is the preprint's own	2026-09-13
`C16`	Thirteen hydropower projects were damaged, removing 431 megawatts from the grid	reported · article, NEA preliminary study	Nepal Electricity Authority preliminary damage assessment, reported by the Kathmandu Post, 30 Aug 2026	2026-09-13

Contested

C04 — The Crossref deposit for this DOI still carries the v1 abstract, which states a single value of -26 min rather than the -26 to -16 range in v5. Cite v5 and say so on the ledger page.
C05 — The Crossref deposit states -6 to +4 min for the next settlement; v5 states +4 to +14. These are different signs at the lower bound. Verify against the paper before speaking it.
C06 — The Crossref deposit states TWO destroyed gauges at 27% and 87%. v5 states THREE at 27, 69 and 87%. The 69% gauge exists only in v5. This is the most-cited figure in the piece and the most exposed.
C08 — A factor-of-2.5 spread. Seismic volume inversion is model-dependent; state the range, never a point value, and never call it 'the largest ever recorded' on the strength of the low end.

Corrections

None yet.